Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Playing Devil's advocate about the Tigers

OK, granted, with the addition of Prince Fielder to the lineup, the Detroit Tigers are a prohibitive preseason favorite in the AL Central in 2012.

After all, the White Sox decided to dismantle a pretty decent team, the Twins have a long way to rebound after a disastrous 2011, and the Indians and the Royals, in spite of an abundance of young talent, are probably a couple years away.

But let's not just give the division crown (or possibly a world championship) to the Tigers before the games are played. If we handed out titles based on offseason moves and prognostication, the Philadelphia Eagles would be playing in the upcoming Super Bowl.

I'm in no way trying to jinx Detroit, but there are still several questions about this team that need to be answered:

* Justin Verlander is a stud and workhorse on the highest level, and he's coming off a season in which he won the Cy Young and MVP. But he also threw 251 innings plus his playoff load. That sometimes leads to at least a small decline the next season. Can he possibly be as dominant in 2012?

* Doug Fister was outstanding in 2011 after being acquired from the Mariners. But that was his first really good season in the majors. Can he duplicate that success in 2012, or was last summer a fluke?

* Miguel Cabrera is a franchise-type player, but he's suddenly being relegated behind Fielder in the Detroit pecking order. Will he pout about being moved to third base, the outfield, or designated hitter? At 240 pounds, is he still mobile enough to play those challenging positions?

* Catcher Alex Avila was a pleasant surprise with 19 homers and 82 RBIs in 2011, but again, he had never posted those kinds of numbers before. Will he have a repeat performance, or will he be the guy who went a combined 3-for-41 in the postseason?

* Austin Jackson's declining average and incredibly high strikeout total from the leadoff spot, no true starting second baseman, the potential for closer Jose Valverde to revert to unpredictable form ... those are just a couple of the other questions facing the Tigers.

* And maybe most importantly, can this team avoid the major injury to its star players? There's always the chance (although you never hope for it to happen) that Verlander develops elbow issues after such heavy use the past few years, or Fielder suffers a wrist injury that hampers him all season, etc. Most championship teams have to overcome injuries like that at some point of the season. Can Detroit do it?

So yes, if I were a betting man, I'm putting my money on the Tigers to win the AL Central, probably by a fair margin. With Fielder added to the mix, at least on paper, they're head and shoulders above the rest of the division.

Fortunately for the rest of the division, as the cliche goes, the game isn't played on paper. You never know the wacky things that can unfold over the long 162-game season.

So don't despair, all you Indians, Royals, Twins, and ChiSox fans -- you still have a chance after all.







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