Washington Nationals fans have to be a little down in the dumps today. Barely 24 hours ago, they were considered among the heavy favorites to ink Prince Fielder -- a move that in all likelihood would have made them a strong playoff contender.
Instead, Fielder found 214 million reasons to go to Detroit.
Still, even without Fielder, the Nats should be a strong challenger in the National League East, along with possibly everybody else except the Mets.
But each team has at least one guy who will dictate whether it is a playoff contender, or just another club playing out the string in September.
Let's start with Washington and a guy you might remember: Stephen Strasburg. There's no denying he's an incredible talent, and even at the end of last year, coming off Tommy John surgery, he looked pretty good in his five starts. Still, most experts say it takes a full season off that surgery to regain top form. What will Strasburg have in the tank in 2012? He's obviously going to be on a pitch/inning count, and the Nats will keep a close eye on him. Will Strasburg have regained enough of his form to help Washington reach the postseason for the first time?
Other guys to keep an eye on include right fielder Jayson Werth, who's likely to explode after a down campaign in 2011; and left fielder Mike Morse, who must prove his ascent last summer was no fluke.
Of course, the Nationals will have to knock perennial power Philadelphia off the top of the division mountain, and that could be a monumental task. Like everybody else, the Phillies have questions, and the guy who is the biggest (literally and figuratively) is first baseman Ryan Howard.
When last we saw Howard, he was writhing in pain on the ground after tearing his Achilles on the final play of the NLDS. He likely won't return until sometime in May or possibly even June.
With Halladay, Lee, Hamels, etc, the Phils likely will be able to survive a couple months without Howard, thanks to their pitching. But eventually, Philly will need him to return to form and provide his typical prodigious power numbers. Will he be able to deliver after suffering such a horrible injury?
Another guy on the spot is second baseman Chase Utley. Is his injury-driven decline the past couple seasons a trend, or merely a bump in the road?
Atlanta has an abundance of question marks entering 2012, but its success ultimately might rest most on the broad shoulders of right fielder Jason Heyward.
In 2010, Heyward was a can't-miss, 20-year-old whom people already were anointing the next great Braves outfielder. But by the end of 2011, he was almost a platoon player, and there were lots of questions about his future by the time Atlanta choked away a playoff spot.
Heyward's batting average dropped 50 points last season, but probably more importantly, his OPS dropped by 141 points. Atlanta needs Heyward to be the star they thought he was in 2010, not the guy who should sit behind Eric Hinske in 2011.
The left side of the infield will be interesting to watch for the Braves, too, with veteran Chipper Jones trying to cheat Father Time at third base, and 22-year-old rookie Tyler Pastornicky trying to keep his head above water at shortstop.
That brings us to Miami, where with Ozzie Guillen managing a team that includes free-Tweeting outfielder Logan Morrison and bipolar pitcher Carlos Zambrano, it's tempting to just pull up a chair and watch every inning of every game.
Off the field, the Marlins might be a powder keg waiting to explode. On the field, they're a talented group of players who, if they put it together, could be a World Series contender.
While there are several guys Miami absolutely needs to produce, it has to be converted third baseman Hanley Ramirez who sets the tone.
First and foremost, he must be a professional and deal with the move to third base. Maybe he should make a call to Michael Young, who keeps agreeing to position changes in Texas and then plays in the World Series.
Second, Ramirez needs to regain the form at the plate that made him an MVP candidate in 2009 with a .954 OPS -- not the guy who only drove in 45 runs in 2011 while scoring just 55. Miami needs both of those numbers to double in 2012.
I know I'm sure to offend the fans in New York, but at this point the Mets simply aren't a contender, and their most interesting player in 2012 is third baseman David Wright -- simply in case they decide to trade him to a contender.
So who wins the NL East? It's too early to really make predictions. But the guys discussed here will go a long way in determining who's popping the cork on champagne in September.
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