Thursday, January 26, 2012

Fielder reports should serve as motivation for Loney

If anyone has reason to be extra motivated going into his offseason workout today, it’s Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman James Loney.

The definition of an enigma the past couple seasons, the sweet-swinging Loney’s slow start in 2011 had him mired among the worst-producing first basemen in the game. By May there was already talk the Dodgers wouldn’t bring him back in 2012, or even that he would be included in a deadline trade last July.

Then magically in the second half of the season, Loney rediscovered the smooth lefty swing that had formerly made him a rising star. He flashed his famously missing power, banging seven homers in his last 37 games, and showed enough that the Dodgers brass decided he was worth bringing back for another season.

The Dodgers appeared confident Loney was their first bagger for 2012 after all. … But not so fast.

Now, word leaks that the Dodgers were indeed deep in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes. In fact, reports are the team offered Fielder $160 million over seven years, with an opt-out after four years.

Since his arrest on suspicion of DUI in November, Loney’s tweets have focused on his hard work at the batting cage, his MMA-style workouts, and motivational catch phrases. He’s appeared, at least publicly, to be the model of drive and desire to excel. He even basically guaranteed a World Series appearance on Twitter recently.

And why shouldn’t he be motivated? Even with the strong second half of 2011, Loney will be on a short leash as 2012 opens. If he gets off to another slow start, he’s bound to lose at-bats to guys such as Juan Rivera like he did last season, or possibly even Jerry Sands, whom the Dodgers would love to get regular time to judge his true potential against MLB pitching. Loney faces the possibility of becoming a platoon-type player — again.

He’s also playing for his free-agent life. Loney can thank the stars for MLB’s arbitration process, because there’s no way he could have commanded $6.5 million on the open market this offseason. He will be a free agent after 2012, and he needs to put up big numbers to show he merits a significant long-term contract offer.

Now, with confirmation of the offer to Fielder, Loney must feel as if the Dodgers considered him to be nothing better than a backup plan for Fielder — or since that fell through, a placeholder for Joey Votto. Their commitment level to Loney equals that of a fat guy to eating vegetables.

So Loney goes into today’s workout swinging a little harder, knowing that the rumors are true — the Dodgers really ARE looking elsewhere for a first baseman; and sprinting a little faster, feeling as if there’s little chance for a long-term future in Los Angeles.

And hopefully motivated to have a career year in 2012.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Even without Prince, NL East will be fascinating in 2012

Washington Nationals fans have to be a little down in the dumps today. Barely 24 hours ago, they were considered among the heavy favorites to ink Prince Fielder -- a move that in all likelihood would have made them a strong playoff contender.

Instead, Fielder found 214 million reasons to go to Detroit.

Still, even without Fielder, the Nats should be a strong challenger in the National League East, along with possibly everybody else except the Mets.

But each team has at least one guy who will dictate whether it is a playoff contender, or just another club playing out the string in September.

Let's start with Washington and a guy you might remember: Stephen Strasburg. There's no denying he's an incredible talent, and even at the end of last year, coming off Tommy John surgery, he looked pretty good in his five starts. Still, most experts say it takes a full season off that surgery to regain top form. What will Strasburg have in the tank in 2012? He's obviously going to be on a pitch/inning count, and the Nats will keep a close eye on him. Will Strasburg have regained enough of his form to help Washington reach the postseason for the first time?

Other guys to keep an eye on include right fielder Jayson Werth, who's likely to explode after a down campaign in 2011; and left fielder Mike Morse, who must prove his ascent last summer was no fluke.

Of course, the Nationals will have to knock perennial power Philadelphia off the top of the division mountain, and that could be a monumental task. Like everybody else, the Phillies have questions, and the guy who is the biggest (literally and figuratively) is first baseman Ryan Howard.

When last we saw Howard, he was writhing in pain on the ground after tearing his Achilles on the final play of the NLDS. He likely won't return until sometime in May or possibly even June.

With Halladay, Lee, Hamels, etc, the Phils likely will be able to survive a couple months without Howard, thanks to their pitching. But eventually, Philly will need him to return to form and provide his typical prodigious power numbers. Will he be able to deliver after suffering such a horrible injury?

Another guy on the spot is second baseman Chase Utley. Is his injury-driven decline the past couple seasons a trend, or merely a bump in the road?

Atlanta has an abundance of question marks entering 2012, but its success ultimately might rest most on the broad shoulders of right fielder Jason Heyward.

In 2010, Heyward was a can't-miss, 20-year-old whom people already were anointing the next great Braves outfielder. But by the end of 2011, he was almost a platoon player, and there were lots of questions about his future by the time Atlanta choked away a playoff spot.

Heyward's batting average dropped 50 points last season, but probably more importantly, his OPS dropped by 141 points. Atlanta needs Heyward to be the star they thought he was in 2010, not the guy who should sit behind Eric Hinske in 2011.

The left side of the infield will be interesting to watch for the Braves, too, with veteran Chipper Jones trying to cheat Father Time at third base, and 22-year-old rookie Tyler Pastornicky trying to keep his head above water at shortstop.

That brings us to Miami, where with Ozzie Guillen managing a team that includes free-Tweeting outfielder Logan Morrison and bipolar pitcher Carlos Zambrano, it's tempting to just pull up a chair and watch every inning of every game.

Off the field, the Marlins might be a powder keg waiting to explode. On the field, they're a talented group of players who, if they put it together, could be a World Series contender.

While there are several guys Miami absolutely needs to produce, it has to be converted third baseman Hanley Ramirez who sets the tone.

First and foremost, he must be a professional and deal with the move to third base. Maybe he should make a call to Michael Young, who keeps agreeing to position changes in Texas and then plays in the World Series.

Second, Ramirez needs to regain the form at the plate that made him an MVP candidate in 2009 with a .954 OPS -- not the guy who only drove in 45 runs in 2011 while scoring just 55. Miami needs both of those numbers to double in 2012.

I know I'm sure to offend the fans in New York, but at this point the Mets simply aren't a contender, and their most interesting player in 2012 is third baseman David Wright -- simply in case they decide to trade him to a contender.

So who wins the NL East? It's too early to really make predictions. But the guys discussed here will go a long way in determining who's popping the cork on champagne in September.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Playing Devil's advocate about the Tigers

OK, granted, with the addition of Prince Fielder to the lineup, the Detroit Tigers are a prohibitive preseason favorite in the AL Central in 2012.

After all, the White Sox decided to dismantle a pretty decent team, the Twins have a long way to rebound after a disastrous 2011, and the Indians and the Royals, in spite of an abundance of young talent, are probably a couple years away.

But let's not just give the division crown (or possibly a world championship) to the Tigers before the games are played. If we handed out titles based on offseason moves and prognostication, the Philadelphia Eagles would be playing in the upcoming Super Bowl.

I'm in no way trying to jinx Detroit, but there are still several questions about this team that need to be answered:

* Justin Verlander is a stud and workhorse on the highest level, and he's coming off a season in which he won the Cy Young and MVP. But he also threw 251 innings plus his playoff load. That sometimes leads to at least a small decline the next season. Can he possibly be as dominant in 2012?

* Doug Fister was outstanding in 2011 after being acquired from the Mariners. But that was his first really good season in the majors. Can he duplicate that success in 2012, or was last summer a fluke?

* Miguel Cabrera is a franchise-type player, but he's suddenly being relegated behind Fielder in the Detroit pecking order. Will he pout about being moved to third base, the outfield, or designated hitter? At 240 pounds, is he still mobile enough to play those challenging positions?

* Catcher Alex Avila was a pleasant surprise with 19 homers and 82 RBIs in 2011, but again, he had never posted those kinds of numbers before. Will he have a repeat performance, or will he be the guy who went a combined 3-for-41 in the postseason?

* Austin Jackson's declining average and incredibly high strikeout total from the leadoff spot, no true starting second baseman, the potential for closer Jose Valverde to revert to unpredictable form ... those are just a couple of the other questions facing the Tigers.

* And maybe most importantly, can this team avoid the major injury to its star players? There's always the chance (although you never hope for it to happen) that Verlander develops elbow issues after such heavy use the past few years, or Fielder suffers a wrist injury that hampers him all season, etc. Most championship teams have to overcome injuries like that at some point of the season. Can Detroit do it?

So yes, if I were a betting man, I'm putting my money on the Tigers to win the AL Central, probably by a fair margin. With Fielder added to the mix, at least on paper, they're head and shoulders above the rest of the division.

Fortunately for the rest of the division, as the cliche goes, the game isn't played on paper. You never know the wacky things that can unfold over the long 162-game season.

So don't despair, all you Indians, Royals, Twins, and ChiSox fans -- you still have a chance after all.







Monday, January 23, 2012

Dodgers fans should root for Cuban

When it was announced that the Dodgers would be sold at auction a few weeks ago, my initial choice for owner was -- absolutely anybody besides Frank McCourt.

I believe that McCourt had good intentions when he bought the Dodgers. He simply was too greedy, selfish, and underqualified to run a major sports franchise (unless you're talking about running it into the ground). Let's put it this way -- Donald Sterling of the Clippers is a better owner than McCourt (ouch).

McCourt bashing aside, it's time to turn our attention to the future. Initial bids were due today in the auction of the team, with the sale expected to be finalized by April 30.

My choice from the list of bidders? Like so many others, it's Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban.

I know that Major League Baseball and its fuddy-duddy commissioner and owners want nothing to do with Cuban. He's a hothead who has given NBA Commissioner David Stern countless headaches because of his penchant for speaking out. He's a thorn in the side of the NBA establishment -- but a shrewd, intelligent, highly successful thorn.

But Cuban would bring one thing to Los Angeles that we Dodgers fans haven't seen: true passion for winning.

I was always a Cuban fan, but my like for him grew even more in my five years living in Dallas in the early 2000s. Seeing him actually sitting among the fans and not in some luxury suite, wearing T-shirts to the game and just wanting to be a regular guy (albeit a regular guy with billions of dollars). He connects with the fans like no other owner I've seen. I even saw him work at a Dairy Queen one day to pay off a bet, and fans lined up down the street for the chance to meet him.

With his passion comes a positivity that younger guys like Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp could use. The Steinbrenner family has the same level of passion for the Yankees that Cuban possesses for his team, but they're more likely to bash a player to the media than ever heap praise. Cuban is just the opposite. Even this year, with the Mavs off to a slow start, Cuban said publicly that this year's team is better than last year's title squad. He's a master motivator but doesn't achieve it through constant public criticism.

And it's not all show. Cuban is smart and savvy. He recognizes guys that deserve to be rewarded, but he's not afraid to part ways with a guy, no matter how popular, who he believes doesn't fit into title plans (for example, Steve Nash). He's not afraid to pull the trigger on a big deal that could make the team better. Cuban is about winning championships, not just making money (although the Dodgers should present him with ample opportunity to do that, too). ... I can assure you that if Cuban were the owner, the Dodgers would have been camping on Prince Fielder's doorstep, waiting to talk to him one second after he officially became a free agent.

Cuban is exactly what the Dodgers need -- somebody who can take the franchise and not only make it fun to watch again, but turn it back into a consistent winner. The Mavericks were a flaming heap when he bought them; now they're a model of consistency and an annual title contender. The Dodgers are in much better shape, so just imagine what Cuban could do with them.

Although I know Cuban has been on record as saying he wouldn't go above a billion dollars for the Dodgers, I'm still sitting here with fingers crossed hoping somehow or another he can submit the winning bid.

He's exactly what the Dodgers need to bring home their first World Series crown in nearly 25 years.



Sunday, January 22, 2012

Oakland: "Just say no" to Manny Ramirez

Major League Baseball is always talking about "getting tough" on players who use banned substances. Guys who helped define an era (like Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, etc) now wear a huge scarlet "S" around their necks because of steroid use. None of them will ever even sniff the Hall of Fame in spite of their huge numbers, and some teams (like the Giants with Bonds and the Cubs with Sosa) have basically disassociated themselves with the former faces of their franchises.
MLB and its teams are getting tough, right? ... Then what the hell is anybody (I'm talking to you, Oakland) doing considering signing Manny Ramirez?

Let's put aside the obvious fact that Ramirez is a bum these days. He hasn't really produced since he had to serve his first 50-game suspension with the Dodgers in 2009. In his last two stops with the White Sox and Rays, he looked old, he was out of shape, his bat speed was nonexistent -- he looked like somebody who should have retired two years earlier.

And let's forget about all the clubhouse shenanigans, of "Manny being Manny," which was just a clever way to saying he was being a moron who cared little about his teammates.

Instead, let's focus on the simple fact that he's a two-time loser in MLB's banned substance program.

He got caught once and had to serve his 50-game suspension. Manny swore he was clean the rest of the time with the Dodgers and White Sox.

Then, in spite of his clearly eroding skills, Ramirez got another shot with the Tampa Bay Rays last season. At first he was just an embarrassment on the field, getting only one hit in 17 at-bats. But then, after he got nabbed for the second time using a banned substance, he committed the ultimate unforgivable act: he quit on his teammates. He "retired" and simply walked away instead of serving what would have been a 100-game suspension. It was disgraceful.

Now, somehow circumventing MLB's supposedly tough program, Ramirez has gotten his 100-game ban reduced to 50 and suddenly has decided to "unretire." He's reinvigorated and ready to recapture some of his past glory.

You would think MLB teams would have learned their lesson about Manny by now. You would think they would want to take a stance against Manny as a two-time abuser. However, apparently Oakland, Baltimore, and Toronto all watched him work out recently, with the Athletics said to be most interested.

Obviously that whole "Moneyball" thing has gone out the window, and Oakland is just interested in drawing a few thousand fans who are more interested in watching a three-ring circus on the field than a winner. ... But that's another story.

MLB teams in unison should turn their backs on Ramirez and just say "no." He's an arrogant, classless idiot who doesn't believe the rules should apply to him, and when teams like the Athletics look to sign him, they're proving he really is above the rules.

And more importantly, they're proving that the whole "getting tough" on players who use banned substances is as big a ruse as Oakland's alleged interest in fielding a winning team in 2012.

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Hamilton or Fielder -- who ya got?

Josh Hamilton or Prince Fielder -- which one would you rather have on your team?
That's a question that apparently the Texas Rangers are kicking around in their free-agency war room.

Rumors have been swirling for several weeks that Fielder, represented by the "Great White Satan" Scott Boras, is intrigued at the thought of playing in Texas. After all, the Rangers have transformed into winners, have good young talent that should keep them that way for a while, and Fielder likely could post tremendous power numbers at The Ballpark.

Fielder already lost out in one battle: Texas opted to go hard after Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish instead of Fielder, investing nearly $52 million for the right to negotiate with him and another $60 million to sign him. That's money that could have gone to Fielder -- but since Nolan Ryan continues to build the team around pitching, the decision was made to chase after Darvish.

Now, the debate turns to whether it would be smarter for Texas to sign Fielder to a long-term contract -- and turn its back on former MVP Josh Hamilton, a free agent following the 2012 season.

To me, the answer is easy: sign Fielder. Sure, there's the age difference (Fielder is three years younger), and the fact he possesses more natural power. Hamilton, on the other hand, is the better overall athlete and is more versatile, although Fielder is obviously a good athlete for his size.

The difference is simply health. Hamilton has been beset by a series of injuries throughout his time with the Rangers. He played 156 games during his MVP campaign in 2008, but has not played more than 133 in the time since. And while he deserves credit for playing through injuries such as the torn abdominal and abductor muscles in the 2011 postseason, Hamilton simply can't stay healthy.

On the other hand, Fielder has never played fewer than 157 games in a full season. He's been remarkably consistent in his short career, in part because he's been able to avoid the major injury, unlike Hamilton.

And even though it might be a little bit of a cheap shot to point it out -- there has to be concern among the Rangers brass about Hamilton's addiction. That appears to be obvious after Johnny Narron, Hamilton's personal accountability coach with the Rangers, left to be hitting coach in Milwaukee. Although Hamilton insisted he was fine without an accountability contact, the team still wanted to hire his father-in-law to keep him company on the road. That arrangement quickly fell through, but the pursuit of someone shows the Rangers' concerns over Hamilton's addiction, and the possibility of relapse.

Hamilton is wildly popular in Texas and has been a model citizen for the Rangers, and parting ways would be difficult. But Fielder is clearly the smarter long-term investment for the team.



Friday, January 20, 2012

Time for Braun to talk

While I still believe Matt Kemp should have been named NL MVP, it was OK when Ryan Braun received the honor instead.

After all, Braun led the Brewers to heights they haven't seen since the days of Cecil Cooper, Gorman Thomas, and Robin Yount. Braun has always seemed like a good guy -- intense, a hard worker and competitor, but still a class act who does things the right way. Teammates and opponents like and respect him.

So like many people, I was fairly shocked at the news in December that Braun had tested positive for a banned substance. My initial reaction was, "There's got to be some mistake."

Quietly, from the start, there have been denials from the Braun camp. When the report first hit ESPN, a spokesman for Braun said there were circumstances supporting "Ryan's complete innocence." Since then I've been waiting -- the baseball world has been waiting -- for Braun to emerge from the fog and present this evidence.

With each passing day, as Braun's baffling silence continues, my support for him fades a little. I understand he wants to "lawyer up" for his appeal to MLB, and that the media will take anything he says and run miles with it. Regardless, Braun owes the fans an explanation if he expects continued backing in this matter.

Saturday night is Braun's time to talk. He will accept the Most Valuable Player award at the Baseball Writers' of America banquet, facing the very writers who voted for him as MVP, and the organization that decided it would not strip him of the honor in spite of the positive test.

Braun will only speak at the dinner, not take questions; thus, it's the perfect time to tell his side of the story. Tell everybody how the test was flawed, equipment malfunctioned, there's a natural phenomenon in your body that caused the positive outcome. ... Tell us something. Anything.

There's a lot more at stake for Braun than just a 50-game suspension and nearly $2 million in lost salary. It's funny to say, but at age 28, Braun's legacy is on the line.

Regardless of the outcome of his appeal, Braun will be lumped by some people with other "cheaters" such as Manny Ramirez and Barry Bonds. Every time he hits a home run, someone in the crowd will make a snarky remark about steroids. Even if he continues to produce big numbers that are deemed worthy of Cooperstown, some voters will reject him based on the simple suspicion of cheating.

Others of us are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, for the time being. Now Braun needs to meet us halfway -- and tell us why we should.