I'll never claim to be a baseball economist. I'm a baseball fan. I look at a player, I think he's good, and I think he should get paid.
Of course, it's never that easy. But I think it IS that simple in the case of a couple young NL West studs named Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum.
Kershaw, only 23, is coming off a Cy Young campaign in which he looked unhittable at times. There have been comparisons between Kershaw and a young Sandy Koufax over the last couple years, which made me shudder. After last season, I still think that's a stretch -- but it's not as far-fetched as I once believed.
The young lefty has a maturity rarely seen in someone his age. He handles himself like a seasoned professional on the field, always with class, and he's clearly a role model for young people off the field with his charity work and wholesome reputation. Quite simply, he's somebody a franchise should build around.
In my opinion, the Dodgers should lock him up with a long-term contract now. Sure, he's not eligible for free agency until after the 2015 campaign, and there's always the risk of injury, regression, etc. I get that. ... But Kershaw looks like one of those "once in a generation" pitchers, somebody who even at 23 has Cooperstown written all over him. The Dodgers should talk long-term contract with him right now.
Instead, they're willing to let him go through the annual arbitration circus, even low-balling him with a $6.5 million offer when he's probably the best pitcher in baseball right now. ... Just pay him.
The Giants find themselves in a similar position with Lincecum. The two-time Cy Young winner isn't eligible for free agency until after the 2013 season, and when there's discussion of a long-term contract, the slender righty is looking for something in the area of eight years. The Giants have balked at that.
For Lincecum, there are some fears that at 28, he's heading the wrong direction. He was only 13-14 last season, his strikeouts per nine innings have declined each of the past three seasons, and his walks have increased. There's also talk he's lost something off his fastball.
But let's face it, with the Giants' atrocious offense, Lincecum must feel as if he has to be perfect every time out. He doesn't believe he can make a single mistake, because his offense can't overcome it. He's still a dominant pitcher, and teams will be lined up around the corner to acquire him when he becomes a free agent -- or possibly even if the Giants decide to trade him instead of waiting to lose him in free agency. It's a distinct possibility.
The Giants haven't been able to work anything out with Lincecum, so they appear headed to arbitration, where Lincecum is asking for $21.5 million. The Giants have countered with a $17 million offer.
Again, just pay him.
Pitchers like these guys are hard to find. Most teams would kill to run Kershaw or Lincecum out to the mound every fourth or fifth day. The Dodgers and Giants simply need to start looking at the future and pay up -- because wouldn't it stink to see either one of these guys pitching for the Yankees or Red Sox someday?
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Is Darvish enough to keep Rangers on top?
The Texas Rangers now have more than $111 million invested in Yu Darvish, a guy who has never thrown a pitch against MLB competition.
Smart? Only time will tell.
But it was a move the Rangers needed to make to try to keep pace (and face) after their AL West rival Los Angeles Angels swooped in to snare free-agent prize Albert Pujols along with top southpaw C.J. Wilson.
Will it be enough? Even if Darvish comes in and wins 20 games, Texas needs an awful lot to go well with its mound corps to claim its third-consecutive division title.
Manager Ron Washington and pitching coach Mike Maddux might find repairing the psyches of their starting pitchers the most difficult challenge entering the season. After all, Neftali Feliz will move to the starting rotation after a monumental Game 6 meltdown that literally cost the Rangers a championship. The team had no choice but to move Feliz to the rotation because of the psychological damage done in that disastrous loss.
The rotation also will count on Alexi Ogando, who was a complete train wreck in the World Series. Ogando had 13 wins in 29 starts during the regular season before moving to the bullpen for the playoffs, but is his confidence now shaken beyond repair?
Lefty Derek Holland appears to be the only sure thing after a 16-win regular season and a stellar showing in the World Series. But he's young and getting real national exposure for the first time. Will he listen to the hype? How much of a distraction will it be for the kid?
Veteran Colby Lewis only occasionally shows flashes of brilliance; most of the time he's pedestrian at best. Matt Harrison is the other option for the rotation, but Buster Olney this week reported that if the Rangers inked Darvish, Harrison was likely the odd man out of the starting group.
My hunch is that Darvish will post somewhere near the 15 wins that Daisuke Matsuzaka got in his first year in MLB. But I don't see Feliz, with his mental baggage, making a smooth transition to the rotation, and Ogando will be fortunate to duplicate his 2011 starting numbers (and might be back in the bullpen by May).
And that means the Rangers -- short of shocking the world and opening the checkbook for Prince Fielder, too -- probably don't have enough to keep up with the Angels in the AL West.
Smart? Only time will tell.
But it was a move the Rangers needed to make to try to keep pace (and face) after their AL West rival Los Angeles Angels swooped in to snare free-agent prize Albert Pujols along with top southpaw C.J. Wilson.
Will it be enough? Even if Darvish comes in and wins 20 games, Texas needs an awful lot to go well with its mound corps to claim its third-consecutive division title.
Manager Ron Washington and pitching coach Mike Maddux might find repairing the psyches of their starting pitchers the most difficult challenge entering the season. After all, Neftali Feliz will move to the starting rotation after a monumental Game 6 meltdown that literally cost the Rangers a championship. The team had no choice but to move Feliz to the rotation because of the psychological damage done in that disastrous loss.
The rotation also will count on Alexi Ogando, who was a complete train wreck in the World Series. Ogando had 13 wins in 29 starts during the regular season before moving to the bullpen for the playoffs, but is his confidence now shaken beyond repair?
Lefty Derek Holland appears to be the only sure thing after a 16-win regular season and a stellar showing in the World Series. But he's young and getting real national exposure for the first time. Will he listen to the hype? How much of a distraction will it be for the kid?
Veteran Colby Lewis only occasionally shows flashes of brilliance; most of the time he's pedestrian at best. Matt Harrison is the other option for the rotation, but Buster Olney this week reported that if the Rangers inked Darvish, Harrison was likely the odd man out of the starting group.
My hunch is that Darvish will post somewhere near the 15 wins that Daisuke Matsuzaka got in his first year in MLB. But I don't see Feliz, with his mental baggage, making a smooth transition to the rotation, and Ogando will be fortunate to duplicate his 2011 starting numbers (and might be back in the bullpen by May).
And that means the Rangers -- short of shocking the world and opening the checkbook for Prince Fielder, too -- probably don't have enough to keep up with the Angels in the AL West.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Ethier Following in Beltre's Footsteps?
Something tells me we're going to see the Adrian Beltre side of Andre Ethier this season in Los Angeles.
Beltre was an enigma for the Dodgers early in his career. A superb talent, he somehow was labeled an underachiever by the media and many fans. That's because Beltre was prone to mental lapses in general and cold spells with the bat, particularly early in the season. He seemed almost disinterested at times, which was maddening for baseball people who recognized his talents.
Then suddenly, as the final year of his contract came in 2004, Beltre recognized the potential for a big payoff in free agency -- and put together one of the better years in recent Dodgers history, smacking 48 home runs, driving in 121. He had one big hit after another in LA's memorable run to the Western Division title.
Now, Ethier finds himself in much the same situation. Although he has shown flashes of the star he could be, such as the 30-game hitting streak last season, Ethier all too often has come up short, especially when it really mattered. He has the tendency to disappear in the second half of the season, and except for the 2009 NLDS against St. Louis, Ethier has been less than imposing for opposing pitchers in the postseason.
And much like Beltre, there are clear indications that Ethier wants out of Los Angeles; in fact, he said as much to the media last season. There has been tension between Ethier and manager Don Mattingly, and Ethier's feelings obviously were hurt when the team made only half-hearted attempts to work out a long-term contract. Plus, there are the constant rumors that he wants to reunite with Arizona State buddy Dustin Pedroia in Boston.
So while none of this may bode well for the Dodgers in the future, it does mean big things for 2012. Ethier is clearly motivated by money and the opportunity to move on -- which means if he can avoid some of the injuries that have plagued him in the past, he's likely to put together a 35-homer, 120-RBI campaign this season.
With those numbers, an offense that requires improvement simply to be labeled "anemic" becomes formidable. Although Matt Kemp's stats are likely to drop from what should have been an MVP campaign in 2011, he's still good for 30 HR and 100 RBI. With Dee Gordon having a full season as a table-setter at the start of the lineup, Juan Rivera/Jerry Sands producing runs from day one in left field, James Loney (also playing for a contract) picking up where he left off at the end of 2011, Juan Uribe bouncing back from injury to be the run-producer he can be ... well, the potential is there for the Dodgers to be a pretty good offensive club.
Matched with a pitching staff anchored by Clayton Kershaw, it's going to be enough to keep LA in the hunt in the National League West. And honestly, how many wins could it possibly take to win the West this year? My guess is 88 or 89. The Diamondbacks can't possibly have everything go right that went right last year; the Giants are a bigger offensive mess than the Dodgers; and the Rockies continue to be completely unpredictable.
Of course, it all depends on Ethier's maintaining his focus and drive for a big contract in a different city -- and channeling his inner Beltre.
Beltre was an enigma for the Dodgers early in his career. A superb talent, he somehow was labeled an underachiever by the media and many fans. That's because Beltre was prone to mental lapses in general and cold spells with the bat, particularly early in the season. He seemed almost disinterested at times, which was maddening for baseball people who recognized his talents.
Then suddenly, as the final year of his contract came in 2004, Beltre recognized the potential for a big payoff in free agency -- and put together one of the better years in recent Dodgers history, smacking 48 home runs, driving in 121. He had one big hit after another in LA's memorable run to the Western Division title.
Now, Ethier finds himself in much the same situation. Although he has shown flashes of the star he could be, such as the 30-game hitting streak last season, Ethier all too often has come up short, especially when it really mattered. He has the tendency to disappear in the second half of the season, and except for the 2009 NLDS against St. Louis, Ethier has been less than imposing for opposing pitchers in the postseason.
And much like Beltre, there are clear indications that Ethier wants out of Los Angeles; in fact, he said as much to the media last season. There has been tension between Ethier and manager Don Mattingly, and Ethier's feelings obviously were hurt when the team made only half-hearted attempts to work out a long-term contract. Plus, there are the constant rumors that he wants to reunite with Arizona State buddy Dustin Pedroia in Boston.
So while none of this may bode well for the Dodgers in the future, it does mean big things for 2012. Ethier is clearly motivated by money and the opportunity to move on -- which means if he can avoid some of the injuries that have plagued him in the past, he's likely to put together a 35-homer, 120-RBI campaign this season.
With those numbers, an offense that requires improvement simply to be labeled "anemic" becomes formidable. Although Matt Kemp's stats are likely to drop from what should have been an MVP campaign in 2011, he's still good for 30 HR and 100 RBI. With Dee Gordon having a full season as a table-setter at the start of the lineup, Juan Rivera/Jerry Sands producing runs from day one in left field, James Loney (also playing for a contract) picking up where he left off at the end of 2011, Juan Uribe bouncing back from injury to be the run-producer he can be ... well, the potential is there for the Dodgers to be a pretty good offensive club.
Matched with a pitching staff anchored by Clayton Kershaw, it's going to be enough to keep LA in the hunt in the National League West. And honestly, how many wins could it possibly take to win the West this year? My guess is 88 or 89. The Diamondbacks can't possibly have everything go right that went right last year; the Giants are a bigger offensive mess than the Dodgers; and the Rockies continue to be completely unpredictable.
Of course, it all depends on Ethier's maintaining his focus and drive for a big contract in a different city -- and channeling his inner Beltre.
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